FORT MILL, S.C. — Ben Carson
was riding high in the race for the Republican presidential nomination a
month ago, a soft-spoken candidate with an uplifting biography and the
outsider credibility that is in fashion this year. His calm demeanor
seemed to be a soothing alternative for conservative voters who were not
enamored with the idea of Donald J. Trump in the White House.
But
after weeks of carnage inflicted by terrorists in France, Mali and
Lebanon, doubts about Mr. Carson’s knowledge of the world have reversed
his momentum. Now the retired neurosurgeon, whose sudden rise in polls
surprised many, is being forced to regroup in the face of mounting
evidence that voters are not sold on him.
“Carson
is failing the commander in chief test that Republican primary voters
have, especially around national security issues like the recent
terrorist attack in Paris,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist
who is not affiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “He is
simply unable to convey a cohesive message to voters.”
Mr.
Carson is barnstorming through South Carolina and Iowa this week to
reconnect with voters, hoping to slow his decline. He planned to reveal
his endorsements from evangelical Christians, days after Mr. Trump
bungled his announcement of an endorsement from 100 black pastors.
At
a town hall event in Fort Mill, S.C., on Wednesday, Mr. Carson focused
heavily on foreign policy, beginning his remarks with stories of his
recent visit with Syrian refugees in Jordan. He returned from the trip
with a policy proposal: The refugees should stay in Jordan and not be
housed in the United States.
“All
of the people who are saying we need to bring Syrian refugees to our
country obviously aren’t seeing what is available to them over there,”
Mr. Carson said, suggesting that the United States offer financial
support so that Jordan could better care for people fleeing the civil
war in Syria.
While
Mr. Trump has been impervious to controversy or missteps thus far, Mr.
Carson is starting to pay the price for learning presidential politics
on the fly. Questions about his readiness were amplified recently when
his foreign policy adviser admitted
that the candidate was struggling to absorb the subject matter. Mr.
Carson also stumbled when he seemed to compare Syrian refugees to “rabid
dogs,” and his impromptu international trip gave some the appearance
that he was cramming for the job of president.
The
Quinnipiac survey, which echoed a decline Mr. Carson was seeing in
Iowa, is trouble for him on two fronts. His support among evangelicals
fell by 13 percentage points in the past month, while his backing from
voters who say “strong leadership qualities” are most important fell by
14 points. Those voters appear to be shifting to Mr. Cruz or to Mr.
Rubio, who has done well demonstrating his foreign policy knowledge in
debates.
Mr.
Carson’s weakness since the Paris attacks has been sizable. Only 40
percent of Republicans in the Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday said
that he had the right experience to be president, far below the
majorities who thought Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump had the right experience.
The same survey revealed that Mr. Carson’s slide might continue: 71
percent of his supporters said they might change their minds, the
highest for any of the four leading candidates.
“Trump,
even when he misspeaks, voters see him as someone who projects strength
and confidence,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who
served on Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2008. “Carson’s
style is good for his likability, but it does not invest confidence
that he can get the job done.”
In South Carolina on Wednesday, voters vouched for Mr. Carson’s likability but expressed some concern about his style.
“I
don’t see anything wrong with being soft-spoken — but be forceful,”
said Peggy Mertes, who said she had not decided if she would vote for
Mr. Carson. “We need to be the superpower again. Enough of this
weak-kneed stuff.”
Bob
Keating said he was leaning to Mr. Rubio because of his polished
speeches and understanding of foreign policy, despite concern that the
senator from Florida was weak on immigration. As for Mr. Carson, he is
impressed with his intellect but is not convinced by his tone.
“You expect a more forceful expression,” Mr. Keating said. “He doesn’t lean into it. I think he’s slightly too mild.”
Mr.
Carson shrugged off his slip in the polls on Wednesday, pointing out
that running for president is a marathon and not a sprint. However, his
remarks made clear that he is aware that he cannot let his religious
base slip away or sound soft on terrorism.
Pacing
across the stage before a room of about 300 people — some supporters
and some who were making up their minds — Mr. Carson clutched a
microphone close to his face. He recited proverbs, and railed against
secular progressivism. When the discussion turned to defeating the
Islamic State, he raised his voice to a loud whisper and laid out his
plan.
But
it may be a tough sell going forward with Mr. Cruz making inroads among
evangelical Christians. A Quinnipiac poll of Iowa voters last week
showed that while Mr. Carson was backed by 24 percent of evangelicals,
the largest bloc of Iowa caucus-goers, that total was down from 36
percent a month earlier. It was clear Mr. Carson’s evangelical
supporters had turned from him over questions of national security. Only
5 percent of Republicans in Iowa said Mr. Carson would be best at
handling terrorism, compared to 30 percent for Mr. Trump and 20 percent
for Mr. Cruz.
Trip Gabriel contributed reporting from Davenport, Iowa.
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